Early Vote Tracking · 2026 Midterms
National monitor · Senate, House and turnout pace · 2 days out · Sunday, Nov 1, 2026
BALLOTS CAST
45.91M
43 states + DC
EARLY VOTE MARGIN
D+9.8
party makeup, R−D
VS 2024 SAME DAY
▼D 8.6
36 states w/ history
PROJECTED ELECTORATE
D+3.2
all 50 states + DC
TURNOUT MODEL
D+2.7
pre-election baseline
PROJ VS MODEL
▼D 0.5
103.91M proj / 105.33M model
GENERIC BALLOT
D+8.3
112 polls
BALLOT MIX
D 41.2 / R 31.4
NPA/other 27.4%
2024 PACE
73%
ballots vs same day 2024
Not tracked: AL · HI · KY · MO · MS · NY · SC
Party margin of ballots vs. the same day in 2024
OK
▼D 30.2
MD
▼D 20.8
IL
▼D 16.3
PA
▼D 15.9
UT
▼D 15.2
IN
▼D 13.9
NC
▼D 13.4
NM
▼D 11.3
ME
▼D 10.3
NV
▼D 10.3
IA
▼D 9.5
RI
▼D 9.4
Cumulative ballots by days to Election Day
Party margin of ballots cast (R−D) · projected electorate
| ST | MATCHUP | BALLOTS | EV MRG | VS 24 SAME DAY | PROJ | 2024 FINAL | SHIFT VS 24 | VS MODEL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KS | Hamilton (D) v Marshall (R) | 345K | R+8.6 | — | R+21.0 | R+25.6 | ▼D 4.5 | 0.0 |
| IA | Turek (D) v Hinson (R) | 427K | D+11.7 | ▼D 9.5 | R+7.1 | R+10.7 | ▼D 3.6 | ▼D 0.1 |
| ME | Jackson (D) v Collins (R) | 279K | D+23.8 | ▼D 10.3 | D+7.8 | D+4.3 | ▼D 3.5 | ▲R 0.1 |
| AK | Peltola (D) v Sullivan (R) | 75K | R+8.6 | — | R+13.2 | R+15.5 | ▼D 2.4 | ▲R 0.2 |
| OH | Brown (D) v Husted (R) | 1.58M | D+4.3 | ▼D 9.0 | R+8.0 | R+8.9 | ▼D 0.9 | ▼D 0.4 |
| TX | Talarico (D) v Paxton (R) | 6.55M | D+0.3 | ▼D 7.9 | R+1.0 | R+5.1 | ▼D 4.1 | ▼D 0.2 |
| MI | El-Sayed (D) v Rogers (R) | 1.83M | D+9.6 | ▼D 4.3 | D+5.1 | D+4.0 | ▼D 1.1 | ▲R 0.2 |
| NE | Osborn (I) v Ricketts (R) | 210K | R+5.8 | ▼D 7.8 | R+24.5 | R+27.9 | ▼D 3.4 | ▼D 0.1 |
Eight closest by prediction markets, closest first. Shift columns compare the projected electorate with 2024 and with the turnout model.
NCD+3.4
▼D 5.8▼D 3.1 M
GAD+1.9
▼D 4.5▼D 0.7 M
NHR+2.4
▼D 4.6▲R 0.1 M
MND+3.8
▼D 2.7▲R 0.1 M
VAD+10.5
▼D 2.9▲R 0.4 M
COD+4.5
▼D 2.9▼D 0.1 M
NMD+15.7
▼D 5.7▼D 0.9 M
ILD+19.8
▼D 4.5▲R 0.4 M
NJD+18.4
▼D 6.1▼D 0.3 M
ORD+10.1
▼D 1.50.0 M
MAD+21.9
▼D 2.6▼D 0.3 M
RID+24.7
▼D 4.8▼D 0.9 M
DED+18.7
▼D 3.5▼D 0.5 M
MTR+14.8
▼D 1.3▲R 0.3 M
WYR+64.9
▼D 4.2▼D 0.6 M
IDR+53.4
▼D 1.0▲R 0.1 M
SDR+35.3
▼D 1.7▼D 0.5 M
OKR+30.2
▼D 4.3▼D 0.1 M
ARR+22.6
▼D 1.6▼D 1.9 M
WVR+15.6
▼D 4.1▼D 0.8 M
LAR+3.7
▼D 4.1▼D 1.7 M
TNR+15.2
▼D 2.9▼D 3.2 M
FLR+9.2
▼D 2.6▼D 2.0 M
Projected electorate, shift from 2024 final, and shift from the turnout model (M)
| CD | HELD | SWINGOMETER | PRES 24 | BALLOTS | EV MRG | PROJ | VS 24 | VS MODEL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NC-11 | NEW New seat | D+0.2 | R+9.6 | 236K | D+5.1 | R+3.2 | ▼D 5.8 | ▼D 1.9 |
| WI-01 | R Steil | D+0.2 | R+4.6 | 100K | R+0.6 | R+2.9 | ▼D 0.3 | 0.0 |
| IA-02 | R Open | R+0.3 | R+10.1 | 106K | D+16.1 | R+2.4 | ▼D 3.6 | ▼D 0.1 |
| PA-01 | R Fitzpatrick | D+0.4 | D+0.3 | 94K | D+29.5 | D+2.8 | ▼D 6.0 | ▲R 0.6 |
| ME-02 | D Open | D+0.6 | R+9.2 | 109K | D+13.1 | R+3.8 | ▼D 3.2 | ▲R 0.2 |
| AZ-02 | R Crane | D+0.8 | R+15.1 | 177K | R+12.5 | R+13.4 | ▼D 2.9 | ▼D 0.2 |
| CO-03 | R Hurd | D+0.8 | R+10.0 | 200K | R+4.5 | R+7.7 | ▼D 2.7 | ▼D 0.3 |
| FL-22 | NEW New seat | R+0.8 | R+10.6 | 180K | D+0.5 | R+4.9 | ▼D 2.4 | ▼D 1.6 |
| TX-35 | NEW New seat | R+0.8 | R+10.6 | 169K | D+4.9 | D+2.5 | ▼D 3.4 | ▼D 0.3 |
| FL-25 | D Moskowitz | D+0.9 | R+9.2 | 170K | D+6.9 | R+0.3 | ▼D 2.5 | ▼D 1.0 |
| NC-01 | D Davis | D+1.1 | R+11.7 | 200K | D+12.5 | D+5.4 | ▼D 3.5 | ▼D 2.8 |
| MO-02 | R Wagner | R+1.2 | R+8.0 | 0 | — | — | — | — |
| PA-08 | R Bresnahan | D+1.2 | R+8.6 | 64K | D+38.2 | D+7.7 | ▼D 6.2 | 0.0 |
| VA-01 | R Wittman | R+1.3 | R+5.0 | 198K | D+3.6 | D+1.0 | ▼D 2.1 | ▲R 0.8 |
| FL-13 | R Luna | R+1.4 | R+13.4 | 184K | R+5.3 | R+11.8 | ▼D 2.6 | ▼D 0.8 |
| OH-07 | R Miller | D+1.5 | R+11.5 | 124K | D+4.1 | R+7.2 | ▼D 1.1 | 0.0 |
| MI-04 | R Huizenga | R+1.6 | R+5.6 | 138K | D+0.3 | R+2.1 | ▼D 0.9 | ▲R 0.2 |
| MI-07 | R Barrett | D+1.8 | R+1.3 | 165K | D+8.8 | D+3.7 | ▼D 1.2 | ▲R 0.2 |
| CO-04 | R Boebert | R+2.4 | R+18.7 | 220K | R+15.3 | R+18.4 | ▼D 2.3 | ▼D 0.2 |
| NV-02 | R Open | R+2.5 | R+14.3 | 199K | R+7.1 | R+13.2 | ▼D 3.8 | ▼D 2.6 |
| CA-22 | R Valadao | D+2.6 | R+1.9 | 58K | D+19.8 | D+16.5 | ▼D 5.5 | ▼D 3.0 |
| FL-14 | D Castor | D+2.6 | R+10.6 | 183K | R+0.2 | R+6.5 | ▼D 3.2 | ▼D 2.4 |
| FL-07 | NEW New seat | R+2.8 | R+12.6 | 197K | R+4.2 | R+9.8 | ▼D 2.8 | ▼D 1.8 |
| OH-15 | R Carey | R+2.8 | R+10.4 | 85K | D+1.5 | R+7.8 | ▼D 1.1 | ▼D 0.2 |
| NY-01 | R LaLota | R+2.9 | R+10.2 | 0 | — | — | — | — |
| MI-10 | R Open | D+3.1 | R+6.7 | 141K | D+5.5 | D+4.9 | ▼D 1.2 | ▲R 0.3 |
| NY-17 | R Lawler | D+3.4 | D+0.6 | 0 | — | — | — | — |
| SC-01 | R Open | R+3.4 | R+13.2 | 0 | — | — | — | — |
| CO-05 | R Crank | R+3.5 | R+9.3 | 176K | R+10.1 | R+12.3 | ▼D 3.3 | ▼D 0.7 |
| TX-34 | D Gonzalez | D+3.7 | R+10.2 | 132K | D+17.1 | D+13.5 | ▼D 2.4 | ▼D 1.3 |
| AK-AL | R Begich | R+3.9 | R+13.7 | 0 | — | — | — | — |
| FL-16 | NEW New seat | R+4.0 | R+13.8 | 201K | R+9.1 | R+14.9 | ▼D 1.5 | ▼D 0.8 |
| MT-01 | R Open | R+4.1 | R+11.9 | 154K | R+6.1 | R+8.1 | ▼D 1.5 | ▲R 0.3 |
| MN-01 | R Finstad | R+4.3 | R+12.2 | 38K | R+9.8 | R+8.8 | ▼D 2.3 | ▲R 0.2 |
| OH-09 | D Kaptur | D+4.6 | R+11.3 | 103K | D+7.4 | R+7.9 | ▼D 0.5 | ▼D 0.7 |
| WI-08 | R Wied | R+4.9 | R+16.5 | 84K | R+7.8 | R+14.6 | ▼D 0.7 | ▲R 0.2 |
| NC-07 | R Rouzer | R+5.2 | R+14.0 | 208K | D+1.8 | R+4.5 | ▼D 4.8 | ▼D 2.4 |
| FL-09 | D Soto | R+5.3 | R+17.9 | 173K | R+5.8 | R+11.1 | ▼D 2.7 | ▼D 2.4 |
| VA-05 | R McGuire | R+5.3 | R+12.4 | 157K | D+10.1 | D+3.1 | ▼D 2.8 | 0.0 |
| TX-23 | NEW New seat | R+5.4 | R+15.2 | 179K | D+5.0 | D+4.1 | ▼D 3.4 | ▼D 0.4 |
| KY-06 | R Open | R+5.5 | R+15.3 | 0 | — | — | — | — |
| TX-09 | NEW New seat | R+5.6 | R+15.4 | 107K | D+2.5 | D+1.6 | ▼D 4.0 | ▼D 0.8 |
| MN-08 | R Stauber | R+5.7 | R+14.5 | 49K | R+12.9 | R+11.6 | ▼D 2.4 | ▲R 0.2 |
| VA-02 | R Kiggans | D+5.9 | R+0.3 | 150K | D+7.1 | D+1.7 | ▼D 2.0 | ▼D 0.2 |
| FL-04 | R Bean | R+6.0 | R+12.0 | 177K | R+0.7 | R+8.4 | ▼D 3.5 | ▼D 3.5 |
| FL-11 | NEW New seat | R+6.0 | R+15.8 | 229K | R+11.3 | R+16.2 | ▼D 2.0 | ▼D 2.0 |
| IA-03 | R Nunn | D+6.0 | R+4.5 | 104K | D+18.5 | R+0.2 | ▼D 3.6 | 0.0 |
| GA-01 | R Open | R+6.1 | R+15.9 | 168K | R+6.0 | R+8.9 | ▼D 3.3 | ▼D 0.5 |
| NC-03 | R Murphy | R+6.2 | R+13.8 | 150K | D+11.5 | D+2.3 | ▼D 5.2 | ▼D 3.9 |
| AZ-08 | R Hamadeh | R+6.3 | R+16.5 | 71K | R+13.0 | R+18.4 | ▼D 1.6 | ▲R 0.3 |
| TX-32 | NEW New seat | R+6.3 | R+18.1 | 186K | R+5.9 | R+6.8 | ▼D 4.5 | ▼D 0.2 |
| IA-01 | R Miller-Meeks | D+6.5 | R+8.6 | 123K | D+17.8 | R+1.3 | ▼D 3.8 | ▼D 0.1 |
| PA-10 | R Perry | D+6.5 | R+5.3 | 63K | D+26.9 | R+6.2 | ▼D 5.4 | 0.0 |
| PA-07 | R Mackenzie | D+6.6 | R+3.2 | 65K | D+39.1 | D+6.2 | ▼D 6.3 | ▲R 0.2 |
| AZ-01 | R Open | D+6.7 | R+3.1 | 83K | R+5.6 | R+10.8 | ▼D 1.9 | ▲R 0.4 |
| TX-15 | R Cruz | R+6.7 | R+18.0 | 135K | D+16.6 | D+12.3 | ▼D 3.2 | ▼D 1.8 |
| NC-14 | R Moore | R+6.8 | R+15.2 | 189K | D+3.2 | R+5.4 | ▼D 6.0 | ▼D 3.8 |
| TX-28 | D Cuellar | D+6.9 | R+10.4 | 113K | D+40.9 | D+37.4 | ▼D 1.8 | ▲R 0.6 |
| NE-01 | R Flood | R+7.3 | R+13.2 | 67K | D+3.2 | R+17.9 | ▼D 4.2 | ▼D 0.1 |
| NC-09 | R Hudson | R+7.5 | R+16.0 | 173K | D+3.0 | R+5.5 | ▼D 5.4 | ▼D 3.7 |
| NC-06 | R McDowell | R+7.6 | R+17.4 | 169K | R+1.4 | R+9.7 | ▼D 5.5 | ▼D 3.8 |
| OH-10 | R Turner | R+7.6 | R+9.9 | 101K | D+8.4 | R+8.5 | ▼D 0.9 | ▼D 0.5 |
| WA-05 | R Baumgartner | R+7.7 | R+11.1 | 181K | D+0.9 | R+1.2 | ▼D 1.6 | ▼D 0.1 |
| WI-03 | R Orden | D+7.7 | R+7.5 | 70K | D+2.8 | R+5.8 | ▼D 1.1 | ▲R 0.1 |
| OH-01 | D Landsman | D+7.8 | R+4.1 | 118K | D+6.0 | R+6.0 | ▼D 1.5 | ▼D 0.5 |
| CO-08 | R Evans | D+7.9 | R+1.9 | 154K | D+6.1 | D+3.1 | ▼D 2.7 | ▼D 0.6 |
| NC-13 | R Knott | R+8.2 | R+16.7 | 205K | D+4.6 | R+3.6 | ▼D 5.7 | ▼D 3.0 |
| FL-08 | R Haridopolos | R+8.3 | R+16.4 | 199K | R+9.3 | R+15.3 | ▼D 2.6 | ▼D 1.5 |
| FL-18 | R Franklin | R+8.3 | R+17.1 | 146K | D+1.3 | R+8.8 | ▼D 3.6 | ▼D 2.9 |
| NC-05 | R Foxx | R+8.4 | R+17.9 | 181K | R+0.2 | R+9.0 | ▼D 5.0 | ▼D 3.3 |
| FL-02 | NEW New seat | R+8.5 | R+18.3 | 170K | R+5.6 | R+10.6 | ▼D 2.9 | ▼D 1.5 |
| NJ-02 | R Drew | R+8.5 | R+12.7 | 94K | D+14.9 | R+3.4 | ▼D 4.6 | ▼D 0.7 |
| MD-01 | R Harris | R+8.6 | R+17.3 | 131K | D+0.1 | R+12.1 | ▼D 4.3 | ▼D 0.9 |
| SC-02 | R Wilson | R+8.6 | R+14.1 | 0 | — | — | — | — |
| IN-05 | R Spartz | R+9.1 | R+17.1 | 86K | R+4.3 | R+18.6 | ▲R 0.6 | ▼D 1.5 |
| NJ-07 | R Kean | D+9.3 | R+1.2 | 119K | D+22.6 | D+1.8 | ▼D 6.2 | ▼D 0.5 |
| AZ-06 | R Ciscomani | D+9.4 | R+0.8 | 224K | D+5.5 | R+3.3 | ▼D 2.9 | ▼D 0.1 |
| GA-12 | R Allen | R+9.5 | R+14.2 | 160K | R+1.0 | R+5.9 | ▼D 3.8 | ▼D 0.7 |
| TX-24 | R Duyne | R+9.7 | R+16.4 | 228K | R+9.9 | R+8.8 | ▼D 3.1 | ▲R 0.4 |
| AR-02 | R Hill | R+9.8 | R+15.9 | 156K | R+5.5 | R+11.1 | ▼D 2.5 | ▼D 1.6 |
| NC-10 | R Harrigan | R+10.0 | R+17.9 | 193K | R+4.0 | R+11.8 | ▼D 5.2 | ▼D 3.1 |
| OH-08 | R Davidson | R+10.0 | R+18.2 | 117K | R+5.3 | R+15.1 | ▼D 0.3 | ▼D 0.3 |
Closest first at a D+8.3 generic ballot · 54 of 75 tracked districts running more D than the model · scroll for all
Lines: 2026 early turnout as % of 2024 on the same day · ◆ projected final as % of 2024 final · legend value = pace at the last day shown
Democrats by primaries voted
4/4 973/4 902/4 861/4 820/4 66
Unaffiliated, no primaries, by 2024 precinct margin
H40 62H20 60H0 59T0 56T20 53T40 45
Republicans by primaries voted
4/4 833/4 742/4 671/4 600/4 43
Democrats by primaries voted
4/4 1093/4 1032/4 1031/4 1060/4 85
Unaffiliated, no primaries, by 2024 precinct margin
H40 87H20 84H0 80T0 76T20 67T40 56
Republicans by primaries voted
4/4 993/4 882/4 811/4 730/4 63
Texas 2024 daily paths are estimated from each party's statewide early-vote curve. 2026 counts every returned ballot; ballots after Texas's latest complete day count on that day.
▼ More D than model
TN Tennessee▼D 3.21
NC North Carolina▼D 3.09
NV Nevada▼D 2.50
FL Florida▼D 2.00
AR Arkansas▼D 1.92
LA Louisiana▼D 1.69
IN Indiana▼D 1.51
CT Connecticut▼D 1.06
UT Utah▼D 1.00
RI Rhode Island▼D 0.92
NM New Mexico▼D 0.89
WV West Virginia▼D 0.75
GA Georgia▼D 0.68
WY Wyoming▼D 0.63
▲ More R than model
WA Washington▲R 0.72
VT Vermont▲R 0.72
IL Illinois▲R 0.44
VA Virginia▲R 0.36
MT Montana▲R 0.32
PA Pennsylvania▲R 0.30
ND North Dakota▲R 0.26
MI Michigan▲R 0.22
DC District of Columbia▲R 0.19
AK Alaska▲R 0.17
ME Maine▲R 0.15
NH New Hampshire▲R 0.13
MN Minnesota▲R 0.12
ID Idaho▲R 0.06
AKR+13▼D 2.4
MED+8▼D 3.5
VTD+20▲R 0.1
NHR+2▼D 4.6
WAD+18▼D 1.4
IDR+53▼D 1.0
MTR+15▼D 1.3
NDR+30▼D 1.0
MND+4▼D 2.7
ILD+20▼D 4.5
WIR+1▼D 1.4
MID+5▼D 1.1
NYN/A
RID+25▼D 4.8
MAD+22▼D 2.6
ORD+10▼D 1.5
NVD+1▼D 3.3
WYR+65▼D 4.2
SDR+35▼D 1.7
IAR+7▼D 3.6
INR+15▲R 0.8
OHR+8▼D 0.9
PAD+4▼D 5.5
NJD+18▼D 6.1
CTD+15▼D 2.4
CAD+21▼D 2.1
UTR+37▼D 5.3
COD+4▼D 2.9
NER+24▼D 3.4
MON/A
KYN/A
WVR+16▼D 4.1
VAD+10▼D 2.9
MDD+32▼D 5.6
DED+19▼D 3.5
AZR+8▼D 2.1
NMD+16▼D 5.7
KSR+21▼D 4.5
ARR+23▼D 1.6
TNR+15▼D 2.9
NCD+3▼D 5.8
SCN/A
DCD+82▼D 4.0
OKR+30▼D 4.3
LAR+4▼D 4.1
MSN/A
ALN/A
GAD+2▼D 4.5
HIN/A
TXR+1▼D 4.1
FLR+9▼D 2.6
Color: shift from 2024 final · text: projected margin and shift■ More D ■ More R
All 75 tracked districts · up = projected electorate more R than the model
● D-held● R-held● new seat
| ST | BALLOTS | EV | VS24 SD | PROJ | VS 24F | VS MDL | THRU |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TX | 6.55M | D+0.3 | ▼D 7.9 | R+1.0 | ▼D 4.1 | ▼D 0.2 | 10-28 |
| CA | 5.03M | D+21.6 | ▼D 4.5 | D+21.0 | ▼D 2.1 | ▼D 0.3 | 10-29 |
| FL | 5.00M | R+2.9 | ▼D 9.2 | R+9.2 | ▼D 2.6 | ▼D 2.0 | 10-31 |
| GA | 2.79M | D+7.3 | ▼D 9.0 | D+1.9 | ▼D 4.5 | ▼D 0.7 | 10-30 |
| NC | 2.76M | D+11.7 | ▼D 13.4 | D+3.4 | ▼D 5.8 | ▼D 3.1 | 10-31 |
| MI | 1.83M | D+9.6 | ▼D 4.3 | D+5.1 | ▼D 1.1 | ▲R 0.2 | 10-29 |
| WA | 1.65M | D+20.4 | ▼D 3.3 | D+18.1 | ▼D 1.4 | ▲R 0.7 | 10-29 |
| VA | 1.59M | D+15.8 | ▼D 5.4 | D+10.5 | ▼D 2.9 | ▲R 0.4 | 10-31 |
| OH | 1.58M | D+4.3 | ▼D 9.0 | R+8.0 | ▼D 0.9 | ▼D 0.4 | 10-31 |
| CO | 1.49M | D+6.5 | ▼D 4.9 | D+4.5 | ▼D 2.9 | ▼D 0.1 | 10-31 |
| IL | 1.42M | D+33.8 | ▼D 16.3 | D+19.8 | ▼D 4.5 | ▲R 0.4 | 10-29 |
| OR | 1.06M | D+11.0 | ▼D 4.0 | D+10.1 | ▼D 1.5 | 0.0 | 10-29 |
| NJ | 1.02M | D+34.8 | ▲R 4.6 | D+18.4 | ▼D 6.1 | ▼D 0.3 | 10-30 |
| MA | 997K | D+26.6 | ▼D 3.0 | D+21.9 | ▼D 2.6 | ▼D 0.3 | 10-29 |
| PA | 991K | D+39.4 | ▼D 15.9 | D+4.3 | ▼D 5.5 | ▲R 0.3 | 10-29 |
| MD | 944K | D+42.4 | ▼D 20.8 | D+32.4 | ▼D 5.6 | ▼D 0.1 | 10-29 |
| TN | 941K | R+4.2 | — | R+15.2 | ▼D 2.9 | ▼D 3.2 | 10-29 |
| AZ | 936K | R+1.4 | ▼D 6.7 | R+7.6 | ▼D 2.1 | ▼D 0.1 | 10-29 |
| WI | 734K | D+5.8 | ▼D 3.3 | R+0.7 | ▼D 1.4 | 0.0 | 10-30 |
| NV | 676K | D+6.0 | ▼D 10.3 | D+1.0 | ▼D 3.3 | ▼D 2.5 | 10-31 |
| IN | 598K | R+0.8 | ▼D 13.9 | R+15.3 | ▲R 0.8 | ▼D 1.5 | 10-28 |
| LA | 520K | D+3.0 | — | R+3.7 | ▼D 4.1 | ▼D 1.7 | 10-28 |
| AR | 505K | R+19.0 | ▼D 6.0 | R+22.6 | ▼D 1.6 | ▼D 1.9 | 10-30 |
| UT | 464K | R+32.8 | ▼D 15.2 | R+37.4 | ▼D 5.3 | ▼D 1.0 | 10-30 |
| CT | 456K | D+28.1 | ▼D 8.7 | D+15.2 | ▼D 2.4 | ▼D 1.1 | 10-31 |
| NM | 446K | D+20.3 | ▼D 11.3 | D+15.7 | ▼D 5.7 | ▼D 0.9 | 10-31 |
| IA | 427K | D+11.7 | ▼D 9.5 | R+7.1 | ▼D 3.6 | ▼D 0.1 | 10-27 |
| KS | 345K | R+8.6 | — | R+21.0 | ▼D 4.5 | 0.0 | 10-29 |
| MN | 313K | D+4.0 | ▲R 1.8 | D+3.8 | ▼D 2.7 | ▲R 0.1 | 10-28 |
| MT | 295K | R+12.8 | ▼D 1.2 | R+14.8 | ▼D 1.3 | ▲R 0.3 | 10-30 |
| ME | 279K | D+23.8 | ▼D 10.3 | D+7.8 | ▼D 3.5 | ▲R 0.1 | 10-29 |
| NE | 210K | R+5.8 | ▼D 7.8 | R+24.5 | ▼D 3.4 | ▼D 0.1 | 10-29 |
| VT | 145K | D+23.8 | ▼D 0.5 | D+19.7 | ▲R 0.1 | ▲R 0.7 | 10-30 |
| WV | 143K | R+4.2 | — | R+15.6 | ▼D 4.1 | ▼D 0.8 | 10-30 |
| DE | 136K | D+24.7 | — | D+18.7 | ▼D 3.5 | ▼D 0.5 | 10-31 |
| RI | 115K | D+33.5 | ▼D 9.4 | D+24.7 | ▼D 4.8 | ▼D 0.9 | 10-30 |
| ID | 115K | R+43.0 | ▼D 7.6 | R+53.4 | ▼D 1.0 | ▲R 0.1 | 10-30 |
| ND | 90K | R+27.3 | ▼D 1.4 | R+30.3 | ▼D 1.0 | ▲R 0.3 | 10-30 |
| AK | 75K | R+8.6 | — | R+13.2 | ▼D 2.4 | ▲R 0.2 | 10-26 |
| SD | 72K | R+24.9 | — | R+35.3 | ▼D 1.7 | ▼D 0.5 | 10-30 |
| WY | 56K | R+56.4 | ▼D 3.9 | R+64.9 | ▼D 4.2 | ▼D 0.6 | 10-29 |
| NH | 42K | D+7.3 | ▼D 2.9 | R+2.4 | ▼D 4.6 | ▲R 0.1 | 10-29 |
| OK | 42K | R+3.7 | ▼D 30.2 | R+30.2 | ▼D 4.3 | ▼D 0.1 | 10-31 |
| DC | 20K | D+80.6 | — | D+82.3 | ▼D 4.0 | ▲R 0.2 | 10-19 |
Ballots count every returned ballot. THRU is each state's latest complete day; comparisons with 2024 use that day.
Margins are the party makeup of the electorate (R minus D), not vote choice. Ballot counts include every returned ballot, including those after a state's latest complete day or without a return date; comparisons with 2024 use each state's latest complete day (mostly Oct 28–31). Senate races are the eight closest by prediction markets, closest first. Swingometer margins at the current generic ballot.Source: Echelon Insights Early Vote Tracking