How each group's early vote compares with the same day in past elections, and how its projected final turnout compares with theirs.
Share of each group's registrants who had voted early by each day. Both rows follow the state chosen at the top.
Turnout rate: early and mail ballots returned by each day, over the group's registrants on today's voter file who were registered by that election.
Share of the earlier year: the later year's rate over the earlier year's on the same day. Lines start once 5% of the group's earlier-year early ballots were in.
Diamonds: final turnout, every way of voting. 2026 is the tracker's projection: ballots cast plus votes still expected.
Primary history: the four primaries up to each election. For 2026, 2020–2026 where the file records 2026 primaries, otherwise 2018–2024.
Party: each state's own measure (registration, party primary history, or modeled party ID in Montana and North Dakota), from today's file for every year.
Against 2022: the 2026 section can compare with 2022 instead, in the of its states that also have clean 2022 timelines; other states are grayed out. 2022 groups use the 2016–2022 primaries.
States: under 10% of early ballots undated in both years compared: states for 2026 against 2024; the of them that also have clean 2020 and 2022 timelines for 2022 against 2020. Each state's 2026 count holds at its latest day.
Source: L2 voter file and the national 2026 early-vote table, Echelon Insights. 2026 ballots through .