BALLOTS CAST
46.99M
43 states + DC
EARLY VOTE MARGIN
D+9.6
party makeup, R−D
VS 2024 SAME DAY
▼D 8.4
36 states w/ history
PROJECTED ELECTORATE
D+3.2
all 50 states + DC
TURNOUT MODEL
D+2.7
pre-election baseline
PROJ VS MODEL
▼D 0.5
104.02M proj / 105.33M model
GENERIC BALLOT
D+8.5
118 polls
BALLOT MIX
D 40.8 / R 31.3
NPA/other 27.9%
2024 PACE
73%
ballots vs same day 2024
Not tracked: AL · HI · KY · MO · MS · NY · SC
Projected electorate vs. the 2024 final electorate (R−D)
Cumulative ballots by days to Election Day
Party margin of ballots cast (R−D) · projected electorate
| ST | MATCHUP | BALLOTS | EV MRG | VS 24 SAME DAY | PROJ | 2024 FINAL | SHIFT VS 24 | VS MODEL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KS | Hamilton (D) v Marshall (R) | 345K | R+8.6 | — | R+21.0 | R+25.6 | ▼D 4.5 | 0.0 |
| IA | Turek (D) v Hinson (R) | 427K | D+11.7 | ▼D 9.5 | R+7.1 | R+10.7 | ▼D 3.6 | ▼D 0.1 |
| ME | Jackson (D) v Collins (R) | 279K | D+23.8 | ▼D 10.3 | D+7.8 | D+4.3 | ▼D 3.5 | ▲R 0.1 |
| AK | Peltola (D) v Sullivan (R) | 83K | R+8.7 | — | R+13.2 | R+15.5 | ▼D 2.4 | ▲R 0.1 |
| OH | Brown (D) v Husted (R) | 1.58M | D+4.3 | ▼D 9.0 | R+8.0 | R+8.9 | ▼D 0.9 | ▼D 0.4 |
| TX | Talarico (D) v Paxton (R) | 7.36M | EVEN | ▼D 5.8 | R+1.0 | R+5.1 | ▼D 4.1 | ▼D 0.1 |
| MI | El-Sayed (D) v Rogers (R) | 1.83M | D+9.6 | ▼D 4.3 | D+5.1 | D+4.0 | ▼D 1.1 | ▲R 0.2 |
| NE | Osborn (I) v Ricketts (R) | 210K | R+5.8 | ▼D 7.8 | R+24.5 | R+27.9 | ▼D 3.4 | ▼D 0.1 |
Eight closest by prediction markets, closest first. Shift columns compare the projected electorate with 2024 and with the turnout model.
States with a 2026 Senate or governor's race beyond the eight above, both races first, then closest projected margin. Projected electorate, shift from 2024 final, and shift from the turnout model (M).
| CD | HELD | SWINGOMETER | PRES 24 | BALLOTS | EV MRG | PROJ | VS 24 | VS MODEL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IA-02 | R Open | R+0.1 | R+10.1 | 106K | D+16.1 | R+2.4 | ▼D 3.6 | ▼D 0.1 |
| NC-11 | NEW New seat | D+0.4 | R+9.6 | 236K | D+5.1 | R+3.2 | ▼D 5.8 | ▼D 1.9 |
| WI-01 | R Steil | D+0.4 | R+4.6 | 100K | R+0.6 | R+2.9 | ▼D 0.3 | 0.0 |
| FL-22 | NEW New seat | R+0.6 | R+10.6 | 180K | D+0.5 | R+4.9 | ▼D 2.4 | ▼D 1.6 |
| PA-01 | R Fitzpatrick | D+0.6 | D+0.3 | 97K | D+29.3 | D+2.9 | ▼D 6.1 | ▲R 0.5 |
| TX-35 | NEW New seat | R+0.6 | R+10.6 | 187K | D+4.2 | D+2.4 | ▼D 3.3 | ▼D 0.2 |
| ME-02 | D Open | D+0.8 | R+9.2 | 109K | D+13.1 | R+3.8 | ▼D 3.2 | ▲R 0.2 |
| AZ-02 | R Crane | D+1.0 | R+15.1 | 177K | R+12.5 | R+13.4 | ▼D 2.9 | ▼D 0.2 |
| CO-03 | R Hurd | D+1.0 | R+10.0 | 203K | R+4.9 | R+7.7 | ▼D 2.7 | ▼D 0.3 |
| MO-02 | R Wagner | R+1.0 | R+8.0 | 0 | — | — | — | — |
| FL-25 | D Moskowitz | D+1.1 | R+9.2 | 170K | D+6.9 | R+0.3 | ▼D 2.5 | ▼D 1.0 |
| VA-01 | R Wittman | R+1.1 | R+5.0 | 198K | D+3.6 | D+1.0 | ▼D 2.1 | ▲R 0.8 |
| FL-13 | R Luna | R+1.2 | R+13.4 | 184K | R+5.3 | R+11.8 | ▼D 2.6 | ▼D 0.8 |
| NC-01 | D Davis | D+1.2 | R+11.7 | 200K | D+12.5 | D+5.4 | ▼D 3.5 | ▼D 2.8 |
| MI-04 | R Huizenga | R+1.4 | R+5.6 | 138K | D+0.3 | R+2.1 | ▼D 0.9 | ▲R 0.2 |
| PA-08 | R Bresnahan | D+1.4 | R+8.6 | 68K | D+37.8 | D+7.8 | ▼D 6.3 | ▼D 0.2 |
| OH-07 | R Miller | D+1.7 | R+11.5 | 124K | D+4.1 | R+7.2 | ▼D 1.1 | 0.0 |
| MI-07 | R Barrett | D+2.0 | R+1.3 | 165K | D+8.8 | D+3.7 | ▼D 1.2 | ▲R 0.2 |
| CO-04 | R Boebert | R+2.2 | R+18.7 | 229K | R+15.4 | R+18.3 | ▼D 2.4 | ▼D 0.3 |
| NV-02 | R Open | R+2.3 | R+14.3 | 199K | R+7.1 | R+13.2 | ▼D 3.8 | ▼D 2.6 |
| FL-07 | NEW New seat | R+2.6 | R+12.6 | 197K | R+4.2 | R+9.8 | ▼D 2.8 | ▼D 1.8 |
| OH-15 | R Carey | R+2.6 | R+10.4 | 85K | D+1.5 | R+7.8 | ▼D 1.1 | ▼D 0.2 |
| CA-22 | R Valadao | D+2.8 | R+1.9 | 58K | D+19.8 | D+16.5 | ▼D 5.5 | ▼D 3.0 |
| FL-14 | D Castor | D+2.8 | R+10.6 | 183K | R+0.2 | R+6.5 | ▼D 3.2 | ▼D 2.4 |
| NY-01 | R LaLota | R+2.8 | R+10.2 | 0 | — | — | — | — |
| SC-01 | R Open | R+3.2 | R+13.2 | 0 | — | — | — | — |
| CO-05 | R Crank | R+3.3 | R+9.3 | 186K | R+10.4 | R+12.2 | ▼D 3.4 | ▼D 0.7 |
| MI-10 | R Open | D+3.3 | R+6.7 | 141K | D+5.5 | D+4.9 | ▼D 1.2 | ▲R 0.3 |
| NY-17 | R Lawler | D+3.6 | D+0.6 | 0 | — | — | — | — |
| AK-AL | R Begich | R+3.7 | R+13.7 | 0 | — | — | — | — |
| FL-16 | NEW New seat | R+3.8 | R+13.8 | 201K | R+9.1 | R+14.9 | ▼D 1.5 | ▼D 0.8 |
| MT-01 | R Open | R+3.9 | R+11.9 | 154K | R+6.1 | R+8.1 | ▼D 1.5 | ▲R 0.3 |
| TX-34 | D Gonzalez | D+3.9 | R+10.2 | 149K | D+15.9 | D+13.4 | ▼D 2.3 | ▼D 1.2 |
| MN-01 | R Finstad | R+4.1 | R+12.2 | 38K | R+9.8 | R+8.8 | ▼D 2.3 | ▲R 0.2 |
| WI-08 | R Wied | R+4.7 | R+16.5 | 84K | R+7.8 | R+14.6 | ▼D 0.7 | ▲R 0.2 |
| OH-09 | D Kaptur | D+4.8 | R+11.3 | 103K | D+7.4 | R+7.9 | ▼D 0.5 | ▼D 0.7 |
| NC-07 | R Rouzer | R+5.0 | R+14.0 | 208K | D+1.8 | R+4.5 | ▼D 4.8 | ▼D 2.4 |
| FL-09 | D Soto | R+5.1 | R+17.9 | 173K | R+5.8 | R+11.1 | ▼D 2.7 | ▼D 2.4 |
| VA-05 | R McGuire | R+5.1 | R+12.4 | 157K | D+10.1 | D+3.1 | ▼D 2.8 | 0.0 |
| TX-23 | NEW New seat | R+5.2 | R+15.2 | 199K | D+4.9 | D+4.1 | ▼D 3.4 | ▼D 0.4 |
| KY-06 | R Open | R+5.3 | R+15.3 | 0 | — | — | — | — |
| TX-09 | NEW New seat | R+5.4 | R+15.4 | 121K | D+2.1 | D+1.6 | ▼D 3.9 | ▼D 0.8 |
| MN-08 | R Stauber | R+5.5 | R+14.5 | 49K | R+12.9 | R+11.6 | ▼D 2.4 | ▲R 0.2 |
| FL-04 | R Bean | R+5.8 | R+12.0 | 177K | R+0.7 | R+8.4 | ▼D 3.5 | ▼D 3.5 |
| FL-11 | NEW New seat | R+5.8 | R+15.8 | 229K | R+11.3 | R+16.2 | ▼D 2.0 | ▼D 2.0 |
| GA-01 | R Open | R+5.9 | R+15.9 | 168K | R+6.0 | R+8.9 | ▼D 3.3 | ▼D 0.5 |
| NC-03 | R Murphy | R+6.0 | R+13.8 | 150K | D+11.5 | D+2.3 | ▼D 5.2 | ▼D 4.0 |
| AZ-08 | R Hamadeh | R+6.1 | R+16.5 | 71K | R+13.0 | R+18.4 | ▼D 1.6 | ▲R 0.3 |
| TX-32 | NEW New seat | R+6.1 | R+18.1 | 210K | R+6.3 | R+7.0 | ▼D 4.3 | ▼D 0.1 |
| VA-02 | R Kiggans | D+6.1 | R+0.3 | 151K | D+7.2 | D+1.7 | ▼D 2.0 | ▼D 0.2 |
| IA-03 | R Nunn | D+6.2 | R+4.5 | 104K | D+18.5 | R+0.2 | ▼D 3.6 | 0.0 |
| TX-15 | R Cruz | R+6.5 | R+18.0 | 151K | D+15.7 | D+12.4 | ▼D 3.2 | ▼D 1.8 |
| NC-14 | R Moore | R+6.6 | R+15.2 | 189K | D+3.2 | R+5.4 | ▼D 6.0 | ▼D 3.8 |
| IA-01 | R Miller-Meeks | D+6.7 | R+8.6 | 123K | D+17.8 | R+1.3 | ▼D 3.8 | ▼D 0.1 |
| PA-10 | R Perry | D+6.7 | R+5.3 | 66K | D+26.7 | R+6.1 | ▼D 5.5 | ▼D 0.1 |
| PA-07 | R Mackenzie | D+6.8 | R+3.2 | 69K | D+38.5 | D+6.4 | ▼D 6.5 | ▲R 0.1 |
| AZ-01 | R Open | D+6.9 | R+3.1 | 83K | R+5.6 | R+10.8 | ▼D 1.9 | ▲R 0.4 |
| NE-01 | R Flood | R+7.1 | R+13.2 | 67K | D+3.2 | R+17.9 | ▼D 4.2 | ▼D 0.1 |
| TX-28 | D Cuellar | D+7.1 | R+10.4 | 131K | D+40.9 | D+37.5 | ▼D 1.9 | ▲R 0.4 |
| NC-09 | R Hudson | R+7.3 | R+16.0 | 173K | D+3.0 | R+5.5 | ▼D 5.4 | ▼D 3.7 |
| NC-06 | R McDowell | R+7.4 | R+17.4 | 170K | R+1.4 | R+9.6 | ▼D 5.5 | ▼D 3.8 |
| OH-10 | R Turner | R+7.4 | R+9.9 | 101K | D+8.4 | R+8.5 | ▼D 0.9 | ▼D 0.5 |
| WA-05 | R Baumgartner | R+7.5 | R+11.1 | 181K | D+0.9 | R+1.2 | ▼D 1.6 | ▼D 0.1 |
| WI-03 | R Orden | D+7.9 | R+7.5 | 70K | D+2.8 | R+5.8 | ▼D 1.1 | ▲R 0.1 |
| NC-13 | R Knott | R+8.0 | R+16.7 | 205K | D+4.7 | R+3.6 | ▼D 5.7 | ▼D 3.1 |
| OH-01 | D Landsman | D+8.0 | R+4.1 | 118K | D+6.0 | R+6.0 | ▼D 1.5 | ▼D 0.5 |
| CO-08 | R Evans | D+8.1 | R+1.9 | 160K | D+6.3 | D+3.2 | ▼D 2.8 | ▼D 0.7 |
| FL-08 | R Haridopolos | R+8.1 | R+16.4 | 199K | R+9.3 | R+15.3 | ▼D 2.6 | ▼D 1.5 |
| FL-18 | R Franklin | R+8.1 | R+17.1 | 146K | D+1.3 | R+8.8 | ▼D 3.6 | ▼D 2.9 |
| NC-05 | R Foxx | R+8.2 | R+17.9 | 181K | R+0.2 | R+9.0 | ▼D 5.0 | ▼D 3.3 |
| FL-02 | NEW New seat | R+8.3 | R+18.3 | 170K | R+5.6 | R+10.6 | ▼D 2.9 | ▼D 1.5 |
| NJ-02 | R Drew | R+8.3 | R+12.7 | 94K | D+14.9 | R+3.4 | ▼D 4.6 | ▼D 0.7 |
| MD-01 | R Harris | R+8.4 | R+17.3 | 131K | D+0.1 | R+12.1 | ▼D 4.3 | ▼D 0.9 |
| SC-02 | R Wilson | R+8.4 | R+14.1 | 0 | — | — | — | — |
| IN-05 | R Spartz | R+8.9 | R+17.1 | 86K | R+4.3 | R+18.6 | ▲R 0.6 | ▼D 1.5 |
| GA-12 | R Allen | R+9.3 | R+14.2 | 160K | R+1.0 | R+5.9 | ▼D 3.8 | ▼D 0.7 |
| NJ-07 | R Kean | D+9.5 | R+1.2 | 119K | D+22.6 | D+1.8 | ▼D 6.2 | ▼D 0.5 |
| TX-24 | R Duyne | R+9.5 | R+16.4 | 252K | R+10.4 | R+9.2 | ▼D 2.8 | ▲R 0.8 |
| AR-02 | R Hill | R+9.6 | R+15.9 | 156K | R+5.5 | R+11.1 | ▼D 2.5 | ▼D 1.6 |
| AZ-06 | R Ciscomani | D+9.6 | R+0.8 | 224K | D+5.5 | R+3.3 | ▼D 2.9 | ▼D 0.1 |
| NC-10 | R Harrigan | R+9.8 | R+17.9 | 193K | R+4.0 | R+11.8 | ▼D 5.2 | ▼D 3.2 |
| OH-08 | R Davidson | R+9.8 | R+18.2 | 117K | R+5.3 | R+15.1 | ▼D 0.3 | ▼D 0.3 |
Closest first at a D+8.5 generic ballot · 55 of 75 tracked districts running more D than the model · scroll for all
Lines: 2026 early turnout as % of 2024 on the same day · ◆ projected final as % of 2024 final · legend value = pace at the last day shown
AKR+13▼D 2.4MED+8▼D 3.5VTD+20▲R 0.1NHR+2▼D 4.6WAD+18▼D 1.4IDR+53▼D 1.0MTR+15▼D 1.3NDR+30▼D 1.0MND+4▼D 2.7ILD+20▼D 4.5WIR+1▼D 1.4MID+5▼D 1.1
NYN/A
RID+25▼D 4.8MAD+22▼D 2.6ORD+10▼D 1.4NVD+1▼D 3.3WYR+65▼D 4.2SDR+35▼D 1.7IAR+7▼D 3.6INR+15▲R 0.8OHR+8▼D 0.9PAD+4▼D 5.6NJD+18▼D 6.1CTD+15▼D 2.5CAD+21▼D 2.1UTR+37▼D 5.3COD+4▼D 2.9NER+24▼D 3.4MON/A
KYN/A
WVR+16▼D 4.1VAD+10▼D 2.9MDD+32▼D 5.6DED+19▼D 3.5AZR+8▼D 2.1NMD+16▼D 5.7KSR+21▼D 4.5ARR+23▼D 1.6TNR+15▼D 2.9NCD+3▼D 5.8SCN/A
DCD+82▼D 4.0OKR+30▼D 4.3LAR+4▼D 4.1MSN/A
ALN/A
GAD+2▼D 4.5HIN/A
TXR+1▼D 4.1FLR+9▼D 2.6Color: shift from 2024 final · text: projected margin and shift■ More D ■ More R
All 75 tracked districts · up = projected electorate more R than the model
● D-held● R-held● new seat
| ST | BALLOTS | EV | VS24 SD | PROJ | VS 24F | VS MDL | THRU |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TX | 7.36M | EVEN | ▼D 5.8 | R+1.0 | ▼D 4.1 | ▼D 0.1 | 10-30 |
| CA | 5.03M | D+21.6 | ▼D 4.5 | D+21.0 | ▼D 2.1 | ▼D 0.3 | 10-29 |
| FL | 5.00M | R+2.9 | ▼D 9.2 | R+9.2 | ▼D 2.6 | ▼D 2.0 | 10-31 |
| GA | 2.79M | D+7.3 | ▼D 9.0 | D+1.9 | ▼D 4.5 | ▼D 0.7 | 10-30 |
| NC | 2.76M | D+11.7 | ▼D 13.4 | D+3.4 | ▼D 5.8 | ▼D 3.1 | 10-31 |
| MI | 1.83M | D+9.6 | ▼D 4.3 | D+5.1 | ▼D 1.1 | ▲R 0.2 | 10-29 |
| WA | 1.65M | D+20.4 | ▼D 3.3 | D+18.1 | ▼D 1.4 | ▲R 0.7 | 10-29 |
| VA | 1.59M | D+15.8 | ▼D 5.4 | D+10.5 | ▼D 2.9 | ▲R 0.4 | 10-31 |
| OH | 1.58M | D+4.3 | ▼D 9.0 | R+8.0 | ▼D 0.9 | ▼D 0.4 | 10-31 |
| CO | 1.55M | D+6.5 | ▼D 4.9 | D+4.5 | ▼D 2.9 | ▼D 0.2 | 10-31 |
| IL | 1.42M | D+33.8 | ▼D 16.3 | D+19.8 | ▼D 4.5 | ▲R 0.4 | 10-29 |
| OR | 1.17M | D+10.3 | ▼D 3.3 | D+10.0 | ▼D 1.4 | ▲R 0.1 | 10-30 |
| PA | 1.04M | D+39.3 | ▼D 15.9 | D+4.4 | ▼D 5.6 | ▲R 0.2 | 10-29 |
| NJ | 1.02M | D+34.8 | ▲R 4.6 | D+18.4 | ▼D 6.1 | ▼D 0.3 | 10-30 |
| MA | 997K | D+26.6 | ▼D 3.0 | D+21.9 | ▼D 2.6 | ▼D 0.3 | 10-29 |
| MD | 944K | D+42.4 | ▼D 20.8 | D+32.4 | ▼D 5.6 | ▼D 0.1 | 10-29 |
| TN | 941K | R+4.2 | — | R+15.2 | ▼D 2.9 | ▼D 3.2 | 10-29 |
| AZ | 936K | R+1.4 | ▼D 6.7 | R+7.6 | ▼D 2.1 | ▼D 0.1 | 10-29 |
| WI | 734K | D+5.8 | ▼D 3.3 | R+0.7 | ▼D 1.4 | 0.0 | 10-30 |
| NV | 676K | D+6.0 | ▼D 10.3 | D+1.0 | ▼D 3.3 | ▼D 2.5 | 10-31 |
| IN | 598K | R+0.8 | ▼D 13.9 | R+15.3 | ▲R 0.8 | ▼D 1.5 | 10-28 |
| LA | 520K | D+3.0 | — | R+3.7 | ▼D 4.1 | ▼D 1.7 | 10-28 |
| AR | 505K | R+19.0 | ▼D 6.0 | R+22.6 | ▼D 1.6 | ▼D 1.9 | 10-30 |
| CT | 493K | D+27.7 | ▼D 8.5 | D+15.4 | ▼D 2.5 | ▼D 1.2 | 11-01 |
| UT | 464K | R+32.8 | ▼D 15.2 | R+37.4 | ▼D 5.3 | ▼D 1.0 | 10-30 |
| NM | 446K | D+20.3 | ▼D 11.3 | D+15.7 | ▼D 5.7 | ▼D 0.9 | 10-31 |
| IA | 427K | D+11.7 | ▼D 9.5 | R+7.1 | ▼D 3.6 | ▼D 0.1 | 10-27 |
| KS | 345K | R+8.6 | — | R+21.0 | ▼D 4.5 | 0.0 | 10-29 |
| MN | 313K | D+4.0 | ▲R 1.8 | D+3.8 | ▼D 2.7 | ▲R 0.1 | 10-28 |
| MT | 295K | R+12.8 | ▼D 1.2 | R+14.8 | ▼D 1.3 | ▲R 0.3 | 10-30 |
| ME | 279K | D+23.8 | ▼D 10.3 | D+7.8 | ▼D 3.5 | ▲R 0.1 | 10-29 |
| NE | 210K | R+5.8 | ▼D 7.8 | R+24.5 | ▼D 3.4 | ▼D 0.1 | 10-29 |
| VT | 145K | D+23.8 | ▼D 0.5 | D+19.7 | ▲R 0.1 | ▲R 0.7 | 10-30 |
| DE | 144K | D+24.5 | — | D+18.8 | ▼D 3.5 | ▼D 0.6 | 11-01 |
| WV | 143K | R+4.2 | — | R+15.6 | ▼D 4.1 | ▼D 0.8 | 10-30 |
| RI | 115K | D+33.5 | ▼D 9.4 | D+24.7 | ▼D 4.8 | ▼D 0.9 | 10-30 |
| ID | 115K | R+43.0 | ▼D 7.6 | R+53.4 | ▼D 1.0 | ▲R 0.1 | 10-30 |
| ND | 90K | R+27.3 | ▼D 1.4 | R+30.3 | ▼D 1.0 | ▲R 0.3 | 10-30 |
| AK | 83K | R+8.7 | — | R+13.2 | ▼D 2.4 | ▲R 0.1 | 10-26 |
| SD | 72K | R+24.9 | — | R+35.3 | ▼D 1.7 | ▼D 0.5 | 10-30 |
| WY | 56K | R+56.4 | ▼D 3.9 | R+64.9 | ▼D 4.2 | ▼D 0.6 | 10-29 |
| NH | 42K | D+7.3 | ▼D 2.9 | R+2.4 | ▼D 4.6 | ▲R 0.1 | 10-29 |
| OK | 42K | R+3.7 | ▼D 30.2 | R+30.2 | ▼D 4.3 | ▼D 0.1 | 10-31 |
| DC | 20K | D+80.6 | — | D+82.3 | ▼D 4.0 | ▲R 0.2 | 10-19 |
Ballots count every returned ballot. THRU is each state's latest complete day; comparisons with 2024 use that day.
Margins are the party makeup of the electorate (R minus D), not vote choice. Ballot counts include every returned ballot, including those after a state's latest complete day or without a return date; comparisons with 2024 use each state's latest complete day (mostly Oct 28–Nov 1). Senate races are the eight closest by prediction markets, closest first. Swingometer margins at the current generic ballot.Source: Echelon Insights Early Vote Tracking